Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its January estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2021-22 beginning from 1st October 2021. The CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2021-22 season by 5.00 lakh bales to 343.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (i.e. 364.58 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 348.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 369.89 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The state-wise break-up of the Cotton Production and Balance Sheet for the season with the corresponding data for the previous crop year are enclosed.
The total cotton supply for the months of October 2021 to January 2022 is estimated by the CAI at 272.20 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 289.21 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), which consists of the arrivals of 192.20 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 204.21 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), imports of 5 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 5.31 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 79.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the season.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October 2021 to January 2022 at 114 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 121.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) while the export shipments upto 31st January 2022 are estimated by the CAI at 25 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 26.56 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). Stock at the end of January 2022 is estimated at 133.20 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 141.53 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) including 75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 79.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with textile mills and the remaining 58.20 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 61.84 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, MCX, etc. including the cotton sold but not delivered).
The CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2021-22 i.e. upto 30th September 2022 at 433.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 460.20 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 79.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the cotton season on 1st October 2021, crop for the season estimated at 343.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 364.58 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the imports for the Season estimated by the CAI at 15 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 15.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against 10 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 10.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) estimated for the previous cotton season 2020-21.
The domestic consumption estimated by the CAI is reduced by 5 lakh bales to 340 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 361.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) against its previous estimate of 345 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 366.56 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The exports for the season have now been estimated at 45 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 47.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) i.e. at the same level as estimated at the last meeting of the COCPC on 12th November 2021 against the previous month’s estimate of 48 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 51 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The exports estimate for the previous cotton season 2020-21 was of 78 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 82.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The carry-over stock at the end of the cotton season 2021-22 on 30th September 2022, is estimated by the CAI at 48.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 51.14 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against the carry-over stock of 75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 79.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) for the previous cotton season 2020-21.
HIGHLIGHTS OF DELIBERATIONS HELD BY THE CAI CROP COMMITTEE ON 24TH FEBRUARY 2022
The Crop Committee of the Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its first physical meeting after a brief while due to the COVID restrictions imposed by the Government. The Committee arrived at the January estimate of the cotton crop for the 2021-22 crop year and drawn the estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.
The following are the highlights of the deliberations held at this meeting:-
CONSUMPTION
The CAI has reduced its consumption estimate for the current crop year by 5 lakh bales to 340 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 361.25 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 345 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 366.56 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) made in the last month. The previous year’s consumption estimate was 335 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 355.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Upto 31st January 2022, the consumption is estimated at 114 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 121.13 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
PRODUCTION
The CAI has reduced its production estimate for the season 2021-22 to 343.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 364.58 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 348.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 369.89 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) made during the last month. The changes made in the state-wise cotton production estimates for the season now made compared to those estimated during the last month are given below:-
In lakh bales of 170 kgs. each
States
Reduction (-)
Gujarat
-1.00
Telangana
-2.00
Andhra Pradesh
-0.50
Karnataka
-1.00
Odisha
-0.50
Total
-5.00
The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI reports.
IMPORTS
The estimate of cotton Imports into India has been maintained at 15 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 15.94 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) i.e. at the same level as estimated in the previous month. The imports now estimated for the 2021-22 crop year are more by 5.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each than the imports estimate of 10 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 10.63 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) for the previous crop year 2020-21.
Up to 31st January 2022 about 5.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each are estimated to have arrived the Indian Ports.
EXPORTS
The Committee has adopted the cotton exports estimate of 45 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 47.81 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) made by the Committee for Cotton Production & Consumption at its last meeting held on 12th November 2021 as against its previous month’s exports estimate of 48 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 51 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Upto 31st January 2022, about 25 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 26.56 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have been shipped.
ARRIVALS
Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October 2021 to January 2022 are estimated at 192.20 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 204.21 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). These arrivals are lower compared to the cotton arrivals of the corresponding months of the 2020-21 crop year. However, if we compare the current year’s cotton arrivals with the average cotton arrivals of October to January during the last five years (except the cotton year 2020-21 which was an exceptional year), the current year’s cotton arrivals are higher by 15.37 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each compared to the average cotton arrivals of 176.83 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each.
STOCK AS ON 31ST JANUARY 2022
The cotton stocks held by mills in their godowns on 31st January 2022 are estimated at 75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 79.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The mills have on an average 81 days’ cotton stock in their godowns.
The CCI, Maharashtra Federation, MNCs, Ginners, Traders, MCX, etc. are estimated to have a total stock of about 58.20 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 61.84 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as on 31st January 2022.
Thus, the total stock held by spinning mills and stockists including the stock of cotton sold but not delivered on 31st January 2022 is estimated at 133.20 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 141.53 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
CLOSING STOCK AS ON 30TH SEPTEMBER 2022
Closing stock as on 30th September 2022 is estimated by the Committee at 48.13 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 51.14 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
