The Cotton Association of India (CAI) Estimates Cotton Crop for 2022-23 Season to be 39.75 Million Bales (Down by 4.25 Lakh Bales)
Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its November estimate of the cotton crop for the season 2022-23 beginning from 1st October 2022. The CAI has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2022-23 season to 339.75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 360.98 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The state-wise break-up of the Cotton Production and Balance Sheet for the season with the corresponding data for the previous crop year are:
The total cotton supply
The total cotton supply for the months of October 2022 and November 2022 is estimated at 84.68 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 89.97 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), which consists of the arrivals of 50.29 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 53.43 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each), imports of 2.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 2.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 31.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 33.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the season.
Estimated cotton consumption
Atul S. Ganatra President, CAI
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption for the months of October and November 2022 at 40 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 42.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) while the export shipments upto 30th November 2022 are estimated by the CAI at 1.00 lakh bales (equivalent to 1.06 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). Stock at the end of November 2022 is estimated at 43.68 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 46.41 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) including 35.68 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 37.91 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with textile mills and the remaining 8 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 8.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) with the CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, MCX, etc. including cotton sold but not delivered).
The cotton supply estimated by the CAI till end of the cotton season 2022-23 i.e. upto 30th September 2023 is 383.64 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 407.62 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 31.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 33.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) at the beginning of the cotton season on 1st October 2022, crop for the season estimated at 339.75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 360.98 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and the imports for the season estimated by the CAI at the same level i.e. at 12 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 12.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The import estimated by the CAI for the corresponding year 2021-22 was at 14 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
The domestic consumption for the season is estimated at 300 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 318.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) as against 318 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 337.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The exports for the season have been estimated at 30.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 31.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) i.e. at the same level as estimated previously. The exports estimate for the previous cotton season 2021-22 was 43 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 45.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The carry-over stock which was earlier estimated at 57.89 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 61.51 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) is now estimated at 53.64 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 56.99 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Highlights Of Deliberations Held By The CAI Crop Committee On 19th December 2022
The Crop Committee of the Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its meeting on Monday, the 19th December 2022, which was attended by 25 members representing various cotton growing regions of the country. The Committee arrived at its November estimate of the cotton crop for the 2022-23 season and drew the estimated cotton balance sheet based on the data available from various trade sources, upcountry associations and other stakeholders.
The following are the highlights of the deliberations held at this meeting:-
Consumption
The CAI has retained its cotton consumption estimate at 300.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 318.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). The previous year’s consumption estimate was 318 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 337.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Upto 30th November 2022, the consumption is estimated at 40 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 42.50 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Production
The CAI has reduced its production estimate for 2022-23 season by 4.25 lakh bales to 339.75 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 360.98 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each). CAI has made following changes in the state-wise production estimates of the season 2022-23 compared to its previous crop estimate:
State
Decrease (-)
Punjab
0.75
Haryana
1.00
Upper Rajasthan
0.33
Lower Rajasthan
0.17
Andhra Pradesh
1.00
Karnataka
1.00
TOTAL
4.25
The Committee members will have a close watch on the cotton arrivals in the subsequent months and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the production estimate, the same will be made in the CAI report.
Imports
The estimate of cotton imports into India is maintained at 12 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 12.75 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) which is less by 2 lakh bales than the import estimate of 14 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) for the previous crop year 2021-22.
Upto 30th November 2022, about 2.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 2.66 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) are estimated to have arrived the Indian Ports.
Exports
The Committee has maintained its cotton exports estimate at 30 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 31.88 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) and are less by 13 lakh bales than the exports estimate of 43.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 45.69 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each) for the crop year 2021-22.
Upto 30th November 2022, about 1 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each are estimated to have been shipped.
Arrivals
Indian cotton arrivals during the months of October and November 2022 are estimated at 50.29 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 53.43 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
Closing stock as on 30th September 2023
Closing stock as on 30th September 2023 is estimated by the Committee at 53.64 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 56.99 lakh running bales of 160 kgs. each).
